Outlook November 2026
Our autumn Outlook provides an update on the 2026/27 levy and an early indication of the 2027/28 levy, helping firms with their financial planning.
Read the full November Outlook below, including our latest forecasts and a statement from our Chief Executive, Martyn Beauchamp.
Our next Outlook will follow in spring 2027.
The 2026/27 levy remains unchanged at £247m, with no additional levy expected
- Compensation costs are now forecast at £292m, £25m higher than in May's Outlook.
- Recoveries are now expected to reach £43m, £10m more than originally forecast.
- While compensation has increased, the levy position has been maintained through higher recoveries, effective use of available surpluses and disciplined cost management.
The initial forecast for the 2027/28 levy is £360m
- The forecast increase compared with 2026/27 is principally due to lower surplus balances available to offset the levy.
- By the end of 2026/27, surplus balances are expected to be over £100m lower than at the end of 2025/26, with most of the available surplus having been used.
- Compensation is expected to remain broadly similar, driven by a mix of self-invested personal pension advice, general investment and insurance-related claims.
Full Outlook report
Outlook November 2026
Contains an update about the 2026/27 levy.
Outlook archive
Copies of Outlook going back to 2015, downloadable in pdf format.
Further reading
Martyn Beauchamp's statement
Martyn reflects on this year's forecast and discusses 2027/28.
How we forecast the levy
Forecasting the cost of our annual levy is a complex task with many moving parts.
How is FSCS funded?
Listen to further information on our levy and recoveries.
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